Time for Zimmer to Dispel Another Notion--That Vikings Lack the Fortitude to Win as Favorites

Over the course of this NFL season, there are probably not two more comparably matched teams than the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers.  In addition to identical records, the teams have nearly identical points scored (345 and 355, respectively) and allowed (289 and 303, respectively).  That those numbers were achieved against nearly identical competition makes the comparison all the more apt.

Inspecting more recent trends suggests that Minnesota and Green Bay have similar prospects.  Over the past five games, both teams have had one game that they would like to forget about.  Minnesota's came in the form of a 38-7 pasting at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay's in the form of a 38-8 thrashing at Arizona.  Neither game was as close as the score might suggest.

In the remaining four games of their previous five-game stretches, both Minnesota and Green Bay went 3-1.  The lone additional loss by each team was by four points or less.

Given these statistics, both teams look to have similar prospects.  That usually bodes well for the home team, particularly when a division title is on the line, and particularly when that title game is being played at Lambeau Field.

But, over the past five games, and even more so over the past three games, some alarming trends have emerged in Green Bay that portend dire season consequences for the Green and Gold.  Conversely, Minnesota has realized some favorable trends over the past three games--trends that tend to bode well for teams looking to make long playoff runs.

In its past five games, Green Bay is plus one on turnovers.  That's not bad.  But the trend has been negative (+2, 0, +1, 0, -2).  Minnesota, meanwhile, has been +4 over the past five games, with the trend  positive (+2, 0, -3, +2, +3).  More significantly, in the game that Minnesota was a -3, the team lost 23-20 at Arizona.  Green Bay lost a game in which it was +2 and was destroyed in the game in which it was -2.  These numbers suggest that Green Bay's margin for error is not as great as Minnesota's.

For a Packer team coming off of its worst defeat of the season, that would be cause enough for concern this weekend.  More alarming, however, should be the fact that Minnesota's embarrassing loss to Seattle came in the absence of three defensive stalwarts and another cornerback.  Those players have now returned to their starting positions.  The results have been immediate, with the team a +3 in turnovers in last week's game.  Green Bay appears to have no such savior on the horizon.

And, if all of that were not cause enough for concern for Green Bay, consider that, while Minnesota's offense has remained in the mid- to upper-300-yard-output range for the past three games, Green Bay's output has dropped precipitously over the past three games from 435 to 293 to 178.  More alarming is that in last week's game, the team's fulcrum, Aaron Rodgers, passed for a nearly inconceivable 77 yards, despite Green Bay being in catch-up mode almost the entire game.

None of this means that it is imminent gloom and doom for the Packers this weekend.  It does suggest, however, that the Vikings ought to consider themselves the clear favorite heading into the game.  The question is whether Vikings' head coach Mike Zimmer will make it his mission this week to dispel the notion that the Vikings are not up to playing as the favorites.

Up Next:  The Zimmer Effect.  Plus, Kicking and Running.

Spielman's History Suggests That the Vikings Will Be Picking Twice in the First Round of This Year's Draft

Rick Spielman has served as the Minnesota Vikings' general manager since 2012.  In that time, Minnesota has made 29 selections in the NFL entry draft.  Of those selections, seven were first- or second-round selections.  Of those seven selections, five are currently starters with seemingly bright futures in the NFL, one is a rotational player on defense, and the seventh might be on the way out of Minnesota and possibly out of the league.

During Spielman's tenure in Minnesota, identifying the diamonds has not been a problem.  What has caused problems, however, has been identifying players who can develop into starters in the NFL.  That's a challenge for every NFL team, but, for Spielman, that has appeared to be particularly difficult.

Of the 22 selections that Minnesota has made after the second round during Spielman's tenure as Minnesota's general manager, 16 are still with the Minnesota Vikings.  At first blush, that's a terrific net.  On closer inspection, however, the results have been less than scintillating.  Of the 16, seven are from the 2014 draft and have the benefit of still being in the evaluation stage of their development.  None have shown starter promise, yet, with Jerick McKinnon being the closest to a starter that the Vikings have to offer from the bunch.  The remaining nine offer much of the same, only with a bit more tread, with Jarius Wright and Blair Walsh being the closest things to keepers from the lot.

With annual turn-over through free-agency alone, it is critical for NFL teams to identify a minimum of three position players in each year's draft who can develop into NFL starters in the short term.  Relying on the known, Spielman has come close to meeting this goal with his first- and second-round picks.  He has not helped himself much in the latter rounds, however.

For Spielman, the lesson must be to stick with known entities.  With the 11th pick in this year's draft, that means shoring up the offensive line.  The most obvious target would be Iowa lineman Brandon Scherff, a player capable of playing either guard or tackle.  With their release of Charlie Johnson, the Vikings have an opening along the offensive line.  If Scherff is available, he represents a logical replacement and a substantial upgrade over the sloth-footed Johnson.

Unfortunately, Scherff likely will be off the board at eleven.  But there are still at least two viable alternatives to Scherff in Stanford tackle Andrus Peat and Miami tackle Ereck Flowers.  Following the adage that it is easier to turn a tackle into a guard than a guard into a tackle, both Peat and Flowers offer some flexibility that Scherff might not, in the event that Matt Kalil continues to struggle at left tackle.  Following the adage that Miami players tend to have adjustment issues in the NFL, Peat is the preferable choice.

Solidifying the offensive line would be the safe approach for the Vikings in this year's draft.  There is a second, more tantalizing option, however, that would shore up the offensive line and give the Vikings considerable options at other position.

Spielman has suggested that he is interested in moving down in the draft, but that's not ever been his modus operandi and it doesn't seem particularly logical drafting at eleven--barring a one- or two-slot move.  Instead, it is far more likely that Spielman will trade some of the team's selections from the later rounds to move into the bottom half of the first round for a second first-round pick.

If Spielman lands a second pick in the first round, the Vikings almost certainly will either draft an offensive lineman-running back pair or an offensive-lineman-wide-receiver pair.  Either would help a team in need of help at lineman, receiver, and running back.  But selecting an offensive lineman and running back such as Melvin Gordon would give the Vikings full leverage in their dealings with Adrian Peterson, a player whom the team would prefer to trade under the proper terms.  Having Gordon in the fold likely would allow the team to trade Peterson for a second-round pick this year and a first in the future, without irritating the fan base or undermining the team's present.  And it would give Spielman an opportunity to select in the second round, rather than guessing later.

Up Next:  The Picks.