Friday, October 26, 2012

Ponder Not the Answer for Vikings

In Thursday night's 36-17 home loss to the previously 2-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Minnesota Vikings' quarterback Christian Ponder was 19-35 for 251 yards, one touchdown and one interception.  Those appear to be relatively modest numbers.  Appearances, as they say, however, can be deceiving.

Where modest appearances often mask spectacular quality, Ponder's modest numbers on Thursday masked what can only be described as a horrid performance.  For three straight weeks, Ponder has underwhelmed in the role of caretaker quarterback--falling below even the levels of his predecessor, Tarvaris Jackson.

With a season and one-half under his belt, Ponder, on Thursday, verified that he is not the franchise quarterback that the Vikings desperately hoped that he would be when the team reached for him with the twelfth overall pick in the 2011 NFL draft.  Nor, unfortunately, is Ponder, at this juncture, even capable of being the caretaker quarterback.

Through the first quarter on Thursday, the Vikings had four yards of offense on 0-5 passing by Ponder.   That was good, somehow, for a passer rating of 39.5.  Against the 29th ranked pass defense, Ponder had 75 passing yards at halftime, when the game was still in doubt.  His pass to start the final drive of the first half was so awful, that the Vikings decided to run out the clock rather than risk yet another turnover in their own end.  Not until Tampa Bay had the game firmly in hand and had shifted to a deep cover zone did Ponder amass the bulk of his mostly meaningless yards.

In addition to the awful numbers, Ponder progressively--or regressively--exhibits characteristics opposite of those necessary for strong on-field performance.  He routinely throws off the back foot, throws across his body, attempts to make impossible plays rolling to the left, fails to spot wide open receivers, opts for the check down, exhibits no strength on his downfield passes, and shows no confidence.  And, despite contentions by some affiliated with the team, Ponder's greatest flaw is not his lack of confidence--the greatest flaws are mechanics, lack of arm strength, and the fact that he appears to be in over his head far too often and increasingly so.

Early last season, Ponder appeared to be making progress toward being at least a decent NFL quarterback.  That seems like eons ago, however.  Were Ponder a free agent today, no NFL team would pick him up--that's how bad things have become.

Unfortunately, those in large part responsible for this mess--not because they drafted Ponder, but because they failed to develop an out-of-the-pocket quarterback into a part pocket, part out-of-the-pocket passer--probably will refuse to admit their mistake until Ponder's contract expires.  That could make for a long interlude for Vikings' fans.

The options, were the Vikings willing to consider them, unfortunately are not all that appealing anyway.  If the Vikings are insistent on molding a pocket passer, Ponder is not their guy.  Nor is Joe Webb--the stronger armed, better running version of Ponder.  Only McLeod Bethel-Thompson has the arm strenght and staying power to meet the requirements of the pure pocket passer that the Vikings, for whatever misguided reason, feel is necessary to lead the team.  And the odds of the Vikings benching Ponder for an untested rookie are lower than Ponder's quarterback rating.

For all involved, Ponder's journey in the NFL has been unfortunate.  Ponder entered the league as a modestly armed passer, good at hitting short routes and wide-open long routes for which the eephus toss that characterizes his downfield passing is more suited for the college game.  He was also gifted at scrambling.

The Vikings liked Ponder's IQ and personality, but they wanted a different football player--a pocket passer.  To transform Ponder into something that he is not, the Vikings permitted and encouraged Ponder to milk the short pass.  Ponder, to his detriment, eschewed the run and dumped it short--often behind the line.  Now, he is incapable of even assessing situations outside of the dump pass and looks both miserable and lost.

Most telling of Ponder's short-comings was not a failure on Thursday, but a success.  His second-quarter touchdown to Percy Harvin was his longest touchdown pass of the season.  The play went for 18 yards.  In game eight of the season, that statistic says a mouthful.  In year two of a career in which he has had the opportunity to play with Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, and Kyle Rudolph, it fills the stomach.

Up Next:  What's Next?


Thursday, October 25, 2012

Time to Spend on Harvin

Through the first seven games of the NFL season, the Minnesota Vikings rank 22 in the league in passing yardage, near the bottom of the league in passes for more the forty yards, near the bottom of the league in passes for more than thirty yards, and near the bottom of the league in passes for more than twenty yards--all that, despite the fact that Percy Harvin is, by far, the league leaders in yards-after-catch, outdistancing the number two receiver in this category, Wes Welker, by nearly 100 yards.

The Vikings' passing statistics reveal two things that most Vikings' fans already know.  The first is that Harvin has become indispensable to the Vikings' offense.  The other is that the Vikings must open the coffers and extend Harvin before Harvin either becomes even more valuable--as he will if the touchdowns begin to follow from his receptions--or he has the opportunity to gauge the interest of the rest of the league.

With $10 million in salary cap space--and more almost certainly to flow back to the team in the form of unearned incentives--the Vikings are in an ideal position to sign Harvin now and have the cap hit count against 2012 rather than 2013 salary cap numbers.  A player of Harvin's abilities likely will command a contract in the neighborhood of $50 million over five seasons, with at least $22 million of that guaranteed.

When the Vikings were pushing for a new stadium, the front office's philosophy was to spend nearly to the salary cap limit and use the roster bonus when signing players.  Now that the stadium is in the bank, the team has backed off both commitments--ominous signs for a team with a pressing decision on Harvin that could and should be resolved yesterday.

Harvin currently earns $915,000 per season--slightly more than Jerome Simpson ($800k) and nearly one-third what Michael Jenkins ($2.5m) receives.  That low figure is a disincentive for the Vikings to renegotiate Harvin's salary this year.

The argument for extending Harvin this year, however, is that the Vikings do have a surplus that otherwise will be unspent and they can use that surplus to pay for at least half of Harvin's likely bonus (assuming at least half of the bonus is in the form of a roster bonus) and pro-rate the remainder over the five years of the contract--considerations that the Vikings need to contemplate as they look down the road to the expiration of other, team-friendly, rookie contracts.

Up Next:  6-2 a Must if Vikings Want to Stay on Playoff Course.  Plus, Time to Truly Develop Quarterback.