Monday, December 31, 2012

In Aftermath of Ponder's Finest Moment, Time for Reality Check

The Minnesota Vikings defeated the Green Bay Packers on Sunday to clinch a spot in the 2012-2013 NFL playoffs.  The victory meant a seven-game improvement over last year's win total, ensured that head coach Leslie Frazier will be extended, and demonstrated, yet again, that Adrian Peterson not only is valuable to this team, but that he is the heart of the team.

These were the primary take-aways from Sunday's game.  Yet, because he had set expectations so low, Christian Ponder's 234 yards passing and a handful of nice passes are being cited as proof that he is the Vikings' quarterback of the future.  While rekindling memories of Ponder's first game in the NFL gives reason for something other than utter disappointment, however, christening Ponder's "arrival" is perhaps a more fanciful response than even the most purple-infused follower routinely would dare offer.

To the objective observer, Ponder was above average over the course of yesterday's game and did precisely what needed to be done at at least three critical moments--he (twice) found Michael Jenkins open in the back of the endzone on a drive that required a Vikings' touchdown, he hit an open receiver in stride for a 65-yard pickup that set-up Jenkins' touchdown, and he hit a wide-open receiver on the sidelines on the winning drive to keep the drive going.  He also kept from turning the ball over.

If Ponder had missed on any of those plays, threw a pick, or put the ball on the ground, the Vikings probably would have lost to a Green Bay team that was eating alive Minnesota's suddenly porous secondary and suddenly suspect kick-return coverage team.

That, as the Vikings like to say, is what Ponder is asked to do.  Make the plays that need to be made.  That's good--but it certainly is not great.

Ponder also had his miscues and warts on Sunday--all of which he got away with because Green Bay was so desperately attempting to do what it simply cannot do, stop the best running back in the league.  Peterson gashed the Packers for 199 yards and two scores despite facing mostly eight- and nine-man fronts.  For the lay person, that means that Ponder had, at worst, single-man coverage on every receiver.  Often, however, the Packers opted not to cover a receiver--as they did on the third-down pass late in the game--hedge the run and dare Ponder to complete a pass to a wide-open Michael Jenkins.

What Ponder demonstrated in Sunday's game is nothing more than that he has it in him to hit wide-open receivers often enough to require at least single-man coverage by the defense.  In the case of the touchdown pass to Jenkins, he also demonstrated an ability to put some zip on a five-yard pass.

One of the local scribes who is normally properly critical of Ponder has suggested that Sunday's performance put Ponder on the same plane as Packer quarterback Aaron Rodgers, if only for one game.  Hardly.

With virtually no running game to speak of and needing points the entire game, Rodgers shook off a sleepy first quarter to sling the ball anywhere he wanted.  Passes that typically lope from Ponder's hands into those of his receivers' zip with alacrity into the striding reach of Packers' receivers.  Long passes look artful, rather than a means of last resort fraught with danger.  And statistics strongly favor Rodgers--even in Ponder's finest hour.

Despite the outcome, there is, then, ample reason to maintain a cautious watch over Ponder.  Sunday offered several such examples.  One, in particular, stands out.  At a critical juncture in yesterday's game, Ponder dropped back.  Facing a heavy rush, he could not decide whether to throw the ball or eat it.  He chose both, heaving a ball forty yards up and twenty yards out.  The ball hit the hands of two Packer defenders and settled in the hands of a surprised Viking receiver.  It was a horrible decision that could have cost the Vikings the game, but for a miracle.

On Sunday, everyone in the NFL universe knew that the Vikings would force the Green Bay Packers to beat them on the ground.  With little ground game, the Packers nearly beat the Vikings through the air with Rodgers amassing 365 yards--a season high--and four touchdowns.  Despite this attention to the passing game, the Packers accumulated a mere 72 yards rushing.  Nobody in Titletown is marveling at the rushing attack.

While everyone in the NFL universe knew that the Packers would force the Vikings to beat them through the air, Peterson amassed 199 rushing yards and two scores.  Those numbers are on par--if slightly higher even--with Rodgers' quarterbacking numbers.  In Minnesota, Ponder's performance is being hailed as magical in some quarters.

The two forces on Sunday were Rodgers and Peterson, not DuJuan Harris and Ponder.  That Ponder did slightly more than expected--that he hit some wide-open receivers against a sell-out-against-the-run defense--only shows that, when he plays really well, Ponder can do just that.  As long as the Vikings have Adrian Peterson, that might be good enough--assuming it is the norm, rather than the high-end aberration.

Up Next:  Peterson Carrying Vikings on Both Sides of the Ball.  Plus, with cash in hand, Vikings need to resign Percy.


Sunday, December 30, 2012

Viking Fans' Rare Moment for Optimism in the Face of Optimism

Winter football.  Snow on the ground.  Playoff seeding in the balance.  A superior record.  A prior victory against the opponent.  One of the top quarterbacks in the NFL.  Facing one of the lesser quarterbacks in the NFL.

It all sounds too good to be true--too certain to result in a victory for a team accustomed to playing, and winning, big games in the Winter.

And it is too good to be true--or should be.

While Green Bay is dominant outdoors at home in the Winter, it is less dominant indoors, any time, particularly when the indoor facility is the Metrodome in Minneapolis.  Add to that the fact that Green Bay is playing merely for playoff seed against a team playing for a playoff spot and Minnesota will have not only home-field advantage but extra incentive against a division rival.

Barring a roof collapse, there will be no Winter weather inside the dome today.  There also will be no defensive patsy in the face of a strong pass, modest-to-weak run offense.  And that quarterback issue for the Vikings?  That will continue to be somewhat meaningless unless the Packers demonstrate an ability to stop Adrian Peterson.

On the season, the Vikings rank in the middle of the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed.  Minnesota has achieved those statistics despite facing decent passing attacks for most of the season and only three truly brutal such offenses.  Moreover, they have accomplished this feat, in part, because they have defended well against the rush, ranking in the top third of the league in rushing touchdowns and rushing yards allowed, despite facing some of the league's leading rushing threats --Marshawn Lynch, Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Alfred Morris, Doug Martin, Frank Gore, and Robert Griffin III.

Green Bay does not offer the same rushing threat of any of Minnesota's staunchest 2012 opponents, ranking near the bottom third of the league in rushing, in spite of having a stout passing attack.  Last week, Ryan Grant showed some promise, rushing for 80 yards and two touchdowns.  But that was against Tennessee's silk defense, not against an NFL lineup.  Against the rest of the competition, Green Bay's leading rusher, Alex Green, has a supremely modest 458 yards rushing--approximately 1,500 yards fewer than Peterson.  If Minnesota can hold Aaron Rodgers in check (under 250 yards with two or fewer touchdowns), the game should be the Vikings' for the taking.

That puts the onus on the Vikings' offense, squarely where it has been the entire season.  Fortunately for Minnesota, the NFL is without a team capable of both stacking the box against Peterson and stopping the check-down lobs of Christian Ponder--and Green Bay certainly is no exception.

In the first meeting between the teams this year at Lambeau Field, Peterson rushed for 210 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries.  The Vikings lost that game because they limited Peterson to 21 carries and Ponder made several brutal decisions, costing the team two critical turnovers and points on the board.  The final result was 23-14 in favor of Green Bay.

If the Vikings can remain within striking distance of Green Bay on the road when their quarterback essentially plays for the opponent, even a zero performance by Ponder should make for a close game.  A zero performance by Ponder and more carries for Peterson should make for a Vikings' victory.  And a modest plus performance by Ponder, combined with more carries for Peterson, should result in a comfortable margin of victory for Minnesota.

If ever Vikings' fans should feel optimistic in the face of optimism, today ought to be the day.  Facing a strong opponent, there will be no reason for over-optimism.  Facing a strong passing attack, there will be no reason for let down, should the Vikings gain a lead.  Possessing a strong-willed, unstoppable running back and a modest, at best, quarterback, there will be no illusion about what ought to be done on offense.  And, defensively and on special teams, the Vikings have reason to be confident.

If ever the stars and moon were aligned for a much needed Vikings' victory against a good opponent, today is the day.

Up Next:  Avoiding a Kahn Moment.