Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Clearing Up Some Misconceptions

Following the Minnesota Vikings' 41-17 defeat of the New York Giants on Sunday, Vikings' owner Zygi Wilf commented that he had full confidence in Vikings' head coach Brad Childress and has "never waivered" in this confidence. While Zygi can be forgiven his exuberance, his remarks ought to be taken with a grain of salt and a dash of reality.

Prior to the 2007 season, reflecting on a sour finish to 2006, Wilf commented that the Vikings were operating under a three-year plan of returning the team to championship-contending status. That was news to many Vikings' fans and, undoubtedly, to the several, key Vikings' veterans who dotted each side of the line of scrimmage, who expected a much earlier return to form.

The purpose of Wilf's statement was two-fold. First and foremost, he was attempting to provide damage control for a fan base on the verge of tuning out--or at least refusing to turn out at the Metrodome on game day. From a PR perspective, Wilf's comments were not well thought out, as the majority of the Vikings' fan base rebelled at the notion of paying more money and investing more time in a team promising only incremental improvements while the rest of the league was operating under a win-now philosophy.

From a bottom-line perspective, however, Wilf had another reason to set forth a three-year plan. That reason was the long contract to which he had recently inked first-time head coach Brad Childress. With his chosen coach inked to a five-year deal at a considerable sum of money, Wilf clearly felt the need to provide to the fan base a timeline for team success while giving his head coach an opportunity to learn on the job.

Entering the 2007 season, Wilf thus clearly sought from Childress nothing more than the thinnest of reasons to retain his head coach beyond 2007. When the Vikings began the season 2-5, Wilf remained silent.

Wilf's silence came to an end, at least behind closed doors, however, after the Vikings' 34-0 loss at Green Bay. Despite what Wilf is now contending--that his support for Childress has never waivered--nothing could be further from the truth as Wilf seriously contemplated replacing Childress mid-season in the wake of the Lambeau debacle.

The cost of making such a move, however, clearly was too great, and the alternatives too slim, for Wilf to act on his impulse in week 11. Then there was the fact that the Oakland Raiders were coming to town and likely would be fodder for whatever the Vikings could put on the field, and Wilf decided to wait it out.

The Vikings' home victory over the Raiders gave Wilf the peace of mind of knowing that his team was better than the worst team in the NFL. The road victory over the Giants, one that Wilf celebrated with the team on the sidelines, merely convinced the Vikings' owner that he could sell Childress to the Vikings' fan base at least for the remainder of this season and possibly through next season.

While the Vikings' victory over the Giants was unexpected both in absolute terms and with respect to the margin of victory, it should not be lost on Vikings' fans that the Vikings defeated a team that is very much like the Vikings in key respects, but for how it appeared on Sunday.

With a team built around establishing the passing game with the running game, the Giants were exposed as at least momentarily one-dimensional on Sunday when they attempted to set up their passing attack without the services of either of their top two running backs, Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward. Jacobs and Ward had combined for over 1,100 yards rushing on the season, despite both missing time to injury. The tandem's replacement against Minnesota, Reuben Droughns, had amasses a less stellar 222 yards on 67 carries.

Droughns' inability to establish the rushing attack against Minnesota forced the Giants increasingly to rely on their quarterback, Eli Manning, to move the offense. For the Giants, that's become akin to the Vikings asking Tarvaris Jackson to set up the Vikings' rushing attack with the pass--it simply isn't in the cards.

When Manning began to press, the Vikings pounced. And when the pouncing worked, the Vikings pounced more, forcing Manning into uncomfortable decision-making territory. For those familiar with Manning's history under such circumstances, the results were predictable.

As Wilf congratulated Childress on the victory over the Giants and used the moment to express his unwavering support for Childress, he clearly either ignored or was blinded to what team it was that the Vikings were facing on Sunday. The Giants, relying on Manning to win the game, were what we thought they were--a team that could still win the game, but a team that was just as likely to implode. That undoubtedly matters little to Wilf, who is just happy to have a "big win" in which to ensconce the coach to which he signed a long-term contract.

Up Next: How Hubris Beats Even the Best of Teams.

Sunday, November 25, 2007

Returning the Favor

Two weeks ago, in the wake of a 34-0 drubbing at the hands of the Green Bay Packers, the Minnesota Vikings appeared destined for their second head-coaching change in as many seasons. After the team's 41-17 evisceration of the New York Giants, however, things look decidedly different.

The Vikings achieved their victory over the Giants, a seven-point favorite at the Meadowlands on Sunday, despite being outgained on offense by the Giants 309 to 251 yards.

On the day, the Vikings' offense outscored the Giants' offense 20-17. But the tale of the game was the play of the two quarterbacks. While Giants' quarterback Eli Manning looked as hopelessly lost as any quarterback has ever looked in the NFL, throwing four picks, three of which were returned for touchdowns, Tarvaris Jackson looked decidedly better than his counterpart.

Though Jackson finished the day a meager 10 of 12 for 129 yards passing--60 of which came on the second play of the game--he did show an ability finally to hit the deep pass. And, though he again held the ball too long in the pocket with Giants' defenders honing in on him, he also finally made use of his scrambling abilities, picking up large chunks of yardage on two separate plays to pick up first downs when the game was still in the balance.

The result of the quarterbacking play in Sunday's game was that, while Jackson did not cost the Vikings the game, doing what he ought to have done in most circumstances, Manning did the opposite, ensuring his team no chance of victory in spite of playing against the 32nd-ranked pass defense in the NFL.

Sunday's game might have marked nothing more than another baby step in Jackson's progression as an NFL quarterback, but it certainly is preferable to going in reverse. And with his team having unquestionably the softest remaining schedule in the NFL, it might suffice to propel the Vikings into the playoffs in 2007.

Up Next: Improved Defense or Awful Giants' Offense?

Monday, November 19, 2007

Winning But Not Really Gaining

Given that most Minnesota Vikings' fans rightfully expected the Vikings to handle the wrong-way streaking Oakland Raiders on Sunday, it's not exactly letting the air out of the euphoria bubble to point out that, win notwithstanding, the Vikings have a considerably long way to go to catch up to the second-tier of teams in the NFL and forever to go to catch up to where the New England Patriots currently stand.

The statistics from Sunday's game support what we already knew to be true about the Vikings. For the game, the Vikings gained 228 net yards rushing and 250 net yards passing, with Vikings' quarterback Tarvaris Jackson netting 171 passing yards and Vikings' rookie wide-receiver Sidney Rice netting 94 passing yards on two passes. The Raiders countered with 61 net rushing yards and 311 net passing yards--344 gross passing yards.

Entering Sunday's game, the Raiders had been riding a five-game losing streak during which they had averaged just over 11 points per game. They doubled that on Sunday and might have tripled it if not for numerous mistakes in Vikings' territory. That doesn't measure well for the Vikings' defense. Nor do the Raiders' passing statistics.

With 344 gross passing yards, the Raiders nearly doubled their season-long, per-game, passing yard average. Part of that result can be blamed on the departure of injured cornerback Antoine Winfield. But, for a team purportedly deep in the secondary to give up 344 yards to the 29th-ranked pass offense in the NFL is difficult to accept, even with a key personnel loss.

While the Vikings have suggested all season that their secondary problems have been the result of an inability to maintain pressure on the quarterback, that inability does not appear a suitable explanation for Sunday's coverage issues as the Vikings sacked Raiders' quarterback Daunte Culpepper four times and hurried him nearly a dozen more times, and forced an intentional grounding that resulted in a safety.

Nor does it suffice to say, as the Vikings' coaching staff and players have argued in the past, that the passing yardage is a by-product of a good rush defense. For, while the Vikings kept the Raiders' woeful rushing offense in check on Sunday, the Raiders still ran 31 rushing plays to 39 passing plays.

What it all suggests is appeared to be true entering Sunday's game. Namely, the Vikings' pass defense isn't very good.

On offense, the Vikings measured up to their billing, relying on back-up running back Chester Taylor to run rough-shod over the Raiders' woeful defensive line and linebacking corps. The Raiders entered the game allowing 144 rushing yards per game, 29th in the league. The Vikings ensured that the Raiders left town with prospects of moving even lower in that category.

The problems for the Vikings' on offense on Sunday were entirely at the quarterback position. Though Jackson had a high completion percentage of 77%, he had a very modest passing-yardage total of 171 yards. The only two times the Vikings' quartback went deep was when the Vikings' quarterback was the Vikings' rookie wide-receiver, Sidney Rice--who amassed with two nicely thrown passes, more than half what Jackson amassed with 22 passes.

Jackson's 171 passing yards, 24 yards less than what the Raiders have been allowing per game this season, were augmented by a poor decision inside the Raiders' ten-yard line that resulted in an interception and a turnover near mid-field resulting from a lack of pocket awareness. That's what one typically gets with a rookie quarterback. And that's what the Vikings are left to rely upon this season despite otherwise having reasonable talent on offense.

In short, the result on Sunday was predictable in nearly every sense of the word. The Vikings ran well, passed below average, stopped the run, and allowed too much in the passing game. The result against a dysfunctional Raiders' team that is as bad as any in the NFL was a victory.

The victory moved the Vikings' to 4-6, ensured them of winning a post-season tie-breaker with the Raiders for drafting priority, should such a tie-breaker be necessary, and, with the continuing below-average play of the pass-defense, probably ensured that Vikings' owner Zygi Wilf will not make a change to defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier this season, if ever.

But the victory certainly did not cement any notions that the Vikings are anything other than what they appeared to be last week at Green Bay. The team still relies on the running game for meaningful yards and has grave difficulty stopping the pass. Against the Raiders, those are passable offenses. Against the Packers, Cowboys, Colts, and Patriots, they are the ingredients for a long afternoon.

Up Next: What the Patriots Have that the Vikings Do Not.

Friday, November 16, 2007

Bringing Up the Rear and Arrogance a Bad Combination

When, in the aftermath of the Minnesota Vikings' 34-0 loss at Lambeau Field last Sunday, word leaked that Vikings' owner Zygi Wilf was contemplating buying out the remaining contract of Vikings' head coach Brad Childress, Vikings' fans were put on notice of what appears to be a suddenly tenuous relationship between Wilf and Childress. The fact that nobody is denying the essence of the leak is telling regarding the extent of the strains between Childress and others within the Vikings' organization, including Vikings' players.

Sunday could well prove to be the denouement of this saga, as the Vikings host the addled Oakland Raiders. Against a team that has averaged 11.2 points per game during a current five-game losing streak, the Vikings should be able to take advantage of home field and polish off the 2-7 Raiders. If not, Zygi might well act on impulse and make a coaching move.

Among the hitches in any plan to relieve Childress of his coaching duties mid-season are Wilf's ability to work-out an acceptable buy-out plan and the Vikings' ability to identify Childress' successor. That successor is likely to be someone from within, with Wilf reportedly favoring relatively fan-friendly defensive coordinator, Leslie Frazier.

Every Vikings' coach has had his issues. Bud Grant's teams never could win the Super Bowl, Les Steckel took pride in his boot camp approach to training camp and quickly turned the veterans, with the exception of punter Greg Coleman, against him, Jerry Burns kept offensive coordinator Bob Schnelker employed, Denny Green couldn't win when his team was favored to win in the playoffs, and Mike Tice made too many foolish mistakes. Of these coaches, only Grant, who retired, then returned to bridge the gap between the disastrous Steckel season and the Burns era, remains virtually untarnished in Vikings' lore.

Despite the blemishes of past Vikings' head coaches, no Vikings' head coach has been a greater lightening rod for fan disenchantment than has been Childress--not even Steckel.

The reasons for the fan disenchantment are evident. After a 4-2 start in 2006, following a 9-7 record in Tice's last season as Vikings' head coach, Childress has guided the Vikings to a 5-14 record. Only Oakland, at 3-16, has a worse record in that stretch of games.

Added to the results on the field has been Childress' cool, often arrogant approach toward media and fans. During a recent call-in show, Childress responded to one fan's inquiry about the wisdom of signing Koy Detmer to a ten-day contract, only to cut him after three days--a move that cost the Vikings $90,000.

Childress replied that the "ten-day contract is not a term that is used in the NFL, so we don't speak in those terms," and continued to speak down to the by now disconnected caller, noting that the team did what it had to do under the circumstances and implying that the entire process was beyond the comprehension of someone who did not deal intimately in the affair.

The point that Childress could have addressed, however, was whether, if former Eagle compadre Detmer were worth signing as a backup, he was also worth signing as a replacement not for Ronyell Whitaker, whom the Vikings cut to make room for Detmer, but for Kelly Holcomb, who appears to have no future whatsoever with the Vikings.

The bigger issue posed by the caller, however, was lost on Childress, who nevertheless was able to spot an insignificant flaw in the caller's question. That's the type of arrogance, in addition to the arrogance of forcing into the starting lineup a quarterback not ready to take snaps in the NFL much less lead a team to the playoffs, that distinguishes Childress from his equally arrogant, though successful, counter-parts, such as Bill Bellichek. And it is the type of arrogance that justifiably does not sit well with Minnesota fans.

If the Vikings manage to lose to the 2-7 Raiders on Sunday, Childress' arrogance combined with his on-field results might just trigger the move that now seems necessary from an organizational standpoint.

Up Next: More on the Childress-Wilf saga. Plus, comparing their ills to ours.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Childress Out?

A source close to Vikings' owner Zygi Wilf has indicated that Wilf is contemplating buying out the remainder of current head coach Brad Childress' contract. The buyout would elevate current defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier to head coach for the remainder of this season. Wilf is said to be displeased not only with Childress' on-field results but also with the second-year coach's lack of appeal among the fan base. The move could come as early as this week.

If true, the move to Frazier likely would provide the rookie defensive coordinator an opportunity to audition for the full-time position of head coach. Though the performance of the Vikings' defense has been mixed in 2007, Frazier has proven much more comfortable speaking to the media than has Childress, providing straight answers to clear questions and offering insight where Childress has refused to do so.

The move to Frazier, a move that would have been more popular prior to last week's defensive collapse at Green Bay, would nevertheless fare the team no worse than where it currently stands under a coaching regime that appears lost in time.

More updates to follow.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

At Least Tice Was Affable

When the Minnesota Vikings made their hasty decision to hire Philadelphia Eagles' offensive coordinator Brad Childress following the 2005 NFL season, there was reason for concern among the fan base. Childress had never called offensive plays in a game under Andy Reid and, at best, had helped orchestrate an offense that always seemed to muddle at the worst possible times.

That did not deter new Vikings' owner Zygi Wilf, who jumped on Childress the way Childress jumps on washed up former Eagles. Stopping for a brief photo op on his way back to Philadelphia after agreeing to terms of a head-coaching contract with the Vikings after less than a day of vetting by the Vikings' organization, Childress pointed out that he picked Minnesota more than Minnesota picked him. "This is the most ideal opening in the NFL," Childress commented, clearly indicting Green Bay's organization--an organization with which he was to have met but for his agreement with the Vikings.

Unfortunately, Childress either was bad at assessing talent at the time he was hired or he has been bad at coaching that talent as head coach as the Vikings have now gone 9-16 under the overmatched coach. Sunday's 34-0 white-washing by the Packers was merely the dung at the bottom of the retaining pool.

The Vikings' blunder in selecting a head coach in 2006, as it turns out, was Green Bay's gain. After a rocky first season under new head coach Mike McCarthy, Green Bay has solidified its offense and improved on a defense that appeared adrift after the departure of defensive coordinator Jim Bates. No such issues were evident on Sunday, when the Packers even seemed to solve their running back woes despite facing a purportedly stout rush defense.

The Packers have improved under McCarthy while the Vikings have regressed under Childress in spite of McCarthy's installation of a new offensive system, one that quarterback Brett Favre initially resisted, and far more personnel concerns at several positions than the Vikings have ever had under Childress. While the Vikings lament their offensive line woes, continuing to receive mostly unacceptable play from three-fifths of the offensive line, the Packers continue to put up points behind an offensive line consisting of two guards and a center with combined NFL experience of six years prior to this season. And while the Vikings bemoan their lack of depth at receiver, the Packers throw virtually anyone in the slot and march down the field slinging the ball. The fact that that production is mainly on Favre says what one needs to know about Childress' approach to identifying quarterbacks that can "manage" a system, rather than finding a quarterback who can play with the talent on the field. The difference, of course, is vast, but clearly is and always has been lost on Childress.

Tiers of Coaching

There are four levels of coaches in the NFL and most any sport. At the highest level are coaches who can take lesser talent and get positive results. One rung below are the coaches who can take good talent and make it even better. Below that level are the coaches who struggle with below-average talent. And below that level, at the bottom of the hierarchy of coaches, are the coaches who struggle to get results from talented players.

In the highest category of NFL coaches are coaches such as Tony Dungy and Bill Bellichek. Both coaches have taken teams with lesser talent than their opponents and won. At the lowest level of NFL coaches are coaches such as Norv Turner and Brad Childress, coaches who have struggled to get positive results from a talent pool that excceds the performances on the field.

The common denominator for coaches in the highest category of NFL coaches is their willingness to fit their play-calling and to make adjustments to fit the situation. Both Dungy and Bellichek have excelled in this regard.

The common denominator for coaches at the lowest rung of the NFL coaches' hierarchy, conversely, is their commitment to a system that does not fit the talent on the field or the circumstances of the moment. Turner and Childress each excel at this.

If there were any doubt about where Childress fell in the hierarchy of NFL coaches, consider his post-game comments on Sunday. "If the team was not ready to play," Childress stated, "I take responsibility. If they didn't come out with fire, that's on me." That's coach speak these days for "I'll take responsibility as long as it is understood that it's not my fault--it's the players' fault."

But even if one were to accept at face value Childress' post-game mea culpa, the statement is equally damning for what it says about Childress' understanding of the Vikings' primary faults on Sunday. What Childress seems not to understand is that the Vikings' horrific performance on Sunday was not the result of the team not being "hyped" to play. Rather, it was the result of a stale formula for playing football that has been rejected by organizations that embrace changes in the rules and in the speed, size, and quickness of the players on the field. The YAC offense of Y.A. Title is simply not appropriate for the modern NFL, but that's what Childress wants to run and what, to his dying day, he appears prepared to shove down the throats of fans unfortunate enough to benefit from his tutelage of their favorite team.

After 25 games of the same system, and ample time for his players to "adjust" to the purported intricacies of an offense that appears to have none, Childress' willingness to accept blame for his players' performance is thus beyond the point of wearing thin.

Up Next: Scouting Childress' Successor.

Friday, November 09, 2007

Keeping It Real

Throughout the week, Minnesota Vikings' head coach Brad Childress has repeated his new favorite cliche that he will "play the quarterback that gives us the best chance to win." For most head coaches, that means actually playing the quarterback who gives their team the best chance to win. For Childress, unfortunately, it appears that it means something quite different.

Despite outshining Tarvaris Jackson in every meaningful category, it appears that Brooks Bollinger remains secondary--or tertiary--in coach Childress' mind. Rumors out of Winter Park suggest that Jackson still could be the starter at Lambeau Field on Sunday. And, with the signing of yet another washed-up, never-was former Philadelphia Eagles' quarterback, Koy Detmer, it appears possible that Bollinger could fall as far as to be named the emergency quarterback against Green Bay.

While Childress might offer some elucidation on how Jackson provides the Vikings their best chance to win on Sunday, it's likely to be as unsatisfactory as the decision itself.

Those who side with Childress' continuing support for pushing a clearly unready Jackson at quarterback have been fond of noting the early-career struggles of other quarterbacks who have now become household names. The problem with these comparisons, of course, has been their complete lack of basis in reality.

Two quarterbacks most commonly compared to Jackson for purposes of showing early-career struggles have been Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, with proponents of the comparisons pointing to the Colts' record in 1998 before resting their case. A fuller comparison, clearly is in order.

In 1998, Peyton Manning's first in the NFL, the Colts' quarterback completed 326 of 575 passes for 3,739 yards and 26 touchdowns. He followed that performance up by completing 331 of 533 passes for 4,135 yards and 26 passing touchdowns--and two rushing touchdowns--in 1999.

Through his first nine starts with the Vikings, Tarvaris Jackson has completed 98 of 191 passes for 1,075 yards, four passing touchdowns, and one rushing touchdown. Over a sixteen game season, that prorates to 174 of 339 pass completions for 1,911 yards, seven passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns.

Clearly, Manning was far superior to Jackson statistically speaking at the beginning of his career. The comparison to early struggles between the two, a comparison intended to show what Jackson might become, thus appears specious, at best.

A comparison with Tom Brady appears equally problematic. In the first nine games of his career, Brady completed 140 of 221 passes for 1,426 yards and 11 touchdown passes. In his first full season, the Patriots' quarterback completed 264 of 413 passes for 2,843 yards and 18 touchdowns. Even adjusting for Jackson's fewer pass attempts, the comparison to Brady's early career appears weak.

There are two quarterbacks with whose early careers Jackson's early career does more favorably compare. Those two quarterbacks are former Chicago Bears' starting quarterback, Rex Grossman, and Baltimore Ravens' quarterback, Kyle Boller.

In his first nine NFL games, Grossman completed 123 of 221 passes for 1,565, with five passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown. Grossman's numbers are slightly better than are Jackson's, but so too are Grossman's attempts. On the other hand, Grossman had the unfortunate experience of incurring an injury that forced him to accumulate the statistics for his first nine games over four seasons. If Jackson is to be given some leeway for his injuries, so too should Grossman be given similar leeway.

Kyle Boller had no such unfortunate experience, playing the first nine games of the 2003 season. In those nine games, the Ravens' quarterback completed 104 of 212 passes with six passing touchdowns. Those numbers look like Jackson's numbers. And those numbers make Boller an apt comparison with Jackson, at least in terms of early-career statistics.

If the Vikings intend to win now--a good idea in today's NFL that rewards the moment--Bollinger is the better choice at starting quarterback at Green Bay than is Jackson. And if Vikings' fans want a real dose of reality, Bollinger might be the better choice as the starter in the long run, barring the edition of something better. That is, unless the Vikings plan to win with a quarterback that is showing more the progression of Grossman and Boller than Manning or Brady.

Up Next: Tough Road Match.

Thursday, November 08, 2007

Actions Speak Louder Than Words

For the third time in as many months, one of our local scribes has repeated a comment that he purportedly took directly from the mouth of Minnesota Vikings' owner Zygi Wilf. According to our scribe, Wilf stated that he wished he had finalized his purchase of the Vikings prior to the Randy Moss trade, presumably so that the trade never would have occurred.

Wilf's claim is plausible, though inconsistent with his recent actions. At the end of the 2006 season, it was clear that the Oakland Raiders were taking offers for the disgruntled Moss. Three months after the off-season began, New England closed a deal with the Raiders, obtaining Moss for a fourth-round pick in the NFL draft.

If Wilf truly was so entirely constipated by the loss of Moss prior to his finalization of the purchase of the Vikings, one would think that he would have stepped forward and offered a third-round pick for Moss this off-season. That would have been nice for all involved. Though it probably would not have done much for the Vikings' offense, absent a quarterback and a system that envisions downfield plays, at least it would have spared us the octogenarian ass-smooching of Zygi and the re-telling of Zygi's purported laments.

Having it Both Ways

When our local scribe is not too busy waxing the puckerhole of the Vikings' owner, he's dutifully carving out a laundry list of excuses to which any number of local coaches, managers, and sports franchise owners can turn to explain their woes. Not surprisingly, none of the excuses suggested by our scribe require any admission of poor decision-making or self-responsibility in any form on the part of the local decision-makers.

This week's installment of ready-made excuses included the following:

After noting what even our local scribe can no longer deny, namely, that the Minnesota Gopher football team's defense is statistically one of the worst in NCAA Division I play, our scribe continued to portray the problem as exclusively one of talent. Not surprisingly, he did so by turning to a local athlete with ties to one of the coach's apparently not responsible for the U's defensive woes.

On Everett Withers, the former secondary coach for the Tennessee Titans, for whom current Vikings' receiver Bobby Wade played in 2006, Wade said he thinks Withers, who is now the secondary coach at the U, is a good coach. Undoubtedly after being prodded by our local scribe, Wade noted that Withers "developed" the Titans' seventh-round corner, Reynaldo Hill, into a top back.

While it's always special to hear a player's public take on a coach for whom he played and for whom he might well play again, it's especially nice in this instance. For, while Withers might be a good coach, he has done nothing to improve the Gophers' secondary in 2006, at least not from any statistically measurable standpoint. Maybe that's why he's at the U now instead of still in the NFL.

There's more, of course, but it will have to wait for a rainy day. Or for the next major let-down in local sports that our scribe did not see coming and for which our scribe will steadfastly refuse to blame anyone involved--at least until they leave the team and are now longer of any use to him.

Up next: Packer Weak?

Monday, November 05, 2007

Hoping Childress Does Not Miss the Forest for the Trees

In Sunday afternoon's unexpected Vikings' romp over the San Diego Chargers, Vikings' rookie running back Adrian Peterson rushed for an NFL record 296 yards en route to ensuring the Vikings a victory and himself the rookie of the year award.

More substantial, however, than the Vikings' in-game accomplishments are the possible long-term repercussions of the solid victory. For, with the win, the Vikings likely saved head coach Brad Childress' job not only for next year, but for several years to come. Because, although Childress did little other than ride his best player, he at least showed the common sense finally to do that much on offense. And it might be all that the Vikings need in a terrifyingly awful NFC.

Things could still return to pre-Sunday form, however, if Childress does not take at least three significant lessons from Sunday's game. The first and most apparent being that Peterson needs to get the ball early and often. Far surpassing his highest carry total to date on Sunday, Peterson showed the ability to carry the load with little more than a sweat.

Is there concern that Childress will again pull back his ace offensive player in favor of a more even rotation system with backup Chester Taylor? Given that, despite running rough shod over the Chargers throughout much of the game, Peterson stood on the sidelines in favor of Taylor on what was then a critical redzone sequence certainly raises that possibility. But surely even Childress is aware that his career now rests squarely on acknowledging Peterson's value in the game versus on the sidelines.

The second lesson from Sunday's game is one for Childress as head of the coaching staff, but probably more properly directed at defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. That lesson is that pressure makes loose coverage seem quite a bit tighter. Despite allowing several Chargers' receivers to get free, second-year cornerback was beaten not once (at least not once that counted) on Sunday as Chargers' quarterback Philip Rivers received a healthy dose of pressure from all angles.

Not content to simply rely on his defensive ends to apply pressure on Rivers, Frazier more than once sent middle linebacker E.J. Henderson into the backfield, with one such episode leading to one of the better Vikings' defensive efforts since the Purple People Eaters roamed the field, with Henderson leaping over LaDainian Tomlinson into a stunned Rivers. That play was a microcosm of what the Vikings did well on defense on Sunday and what they will have to continue to do well against more experienced quarterbacks this year if they hope to get back into the race for a playoff spot.

The final lesson from Sunday's game, and the one lesson that seems most lost in the excitement over Peterson's outstanding performance, is that in the modern NFL the ability to complete a deep pass is a pre-requisite to an effective offense. For the Vikings, that lesson leads to the conclusion that that the team's starter for the remainder of the season must be Brooks Bollinger.

In the first half of Sunday's game, prior to Tarvaris Jackson's game-ending injury, Peterson rushed for sixty yards and one touchdown. Those are respectable numbers for many running backs in the NFL, but well below what Peterson has proven he is capable of producing if given an opportunity and even a modicum of breathing space.

In the second half of the game, with Bollinger at quarterback, Peterson ran for 236 yards and two touchdowns.

In the first half, the Vikings had seven possessions, averaged just under five plays per possession, going three and out twice and four and out twice en route to seven first-half points.

In the second half, the Vikings had six possessions (excluding their final possession during which they ran out the game clock), averaged just five plays per possession, never once going three and out, en route to four touchdowns.

After punting five times in the first half, the Vikings did not punt once in the second half, ending four drives with touchdowns and two others with fumbles.

The difference between the first and second half was the dominance of Peterson. But that dominance was made possible by the Vikings' ability to force the Chargers to respect the deep pass. The Vikings accomplished this very necessary task by showing pass on the first drive of the second half and proving it indelibly on the second drive of the second half when Bollinger hit little-used, rookie wide receiver Sidney Rice for a 40-yard touchdown. That play, along with the completed passes during the first drive of the second half, forced the Chargers to play honest defense. And that opened holes in the line for Peterson.

Childress has proven stubborn in the past, relenting only this week to calls to use Peterson more extensively. We shall soon know if he remains as stubborn about foisting upon the team a rookie quarterback who's not nearly as ready to start in the NFL as is the team's purported third-stringer, Bollinger. If Bollinger gets the nod in Green Bay next week, the Vikings just might turn a season that only last week appeared destined for one filled with ignominy into a possible playoff berth. If not...

Up Next: More Numbers.

Thursday, November 01, 2007

Return to the Greasy Grass

Native Americans referred to it as The Battle of the Greasy Grass. Others more commonly refer to it as The Battle of Little Big Horn or Custer's Last Stand. In either parlance, the battle between the U.S. Seventh Cavalary and the Lakota and Northern Cheyenne Indians readily came to mind during Minnesota Vikings' head coach Brad Childress' most recent press conference in the wake of the team's most recent loss.

When asked about his team's morale, Childress commented that the players are "professional" and that they would "be ready to play on Sunday." That insight aside, Childress offered more, noting that he reminded his players that working together through the rough stretches would make the team stronger in the future.

The question, of course, is what gives Childress reason to believe that the future is significantly brighter than the present? Following Sunday's loss to the previously 2-4 Philadelphia Eagles, the Vikings have lost 13 of their last 17 games. And, while Childress continues to preach patience, even Custer's men abadon such hope at some point.

The 800 pound gorilla for the Vikings remains whether Childress' system offers promise even for the future? It appears that, despite a finger injury that kept Tarvaris Jackson out last week, Childress is now willing to test the finger and put Jackson back at the helm of the offense, suggesting that Childress is resigned to not making the playoffs this season.

Assuming, however, that Jackson shows progress this season, is there much more reason for optimism in 2008 even with a better Jackson? Childress' comments suggest that he believes next year, or some year in the near future, will be a better year for the Vikings. But considering Childress' approach to the game, that seems doubtful at this point.

The recipe for returning the Vikings to success appears two-fold. First and foremost, the team needs better quarterbacking play. Brooks Bollinger appears to be the most equipped current Vikings' quarterback to meet that need. Instead, however, Jackson will be given a chance to learn the position and, presumably, audition for his return to the starter's role next season.

If Jackson succeeds, however, the Vikings still will have one large obstacle to returning to the status of championship contender. That obstacle is the mind-set of the head coach. It is improbable, if not impossible, to win an NFL championship with the approach that Childress currently is employing. Teams that play not to lose, keeping the game close in the hopes of snatching victory at the end, are, as precedent demonstrates and probability supports, destined, at best, for mediocrity.

If Childress changes his mindsight--something that sounds implausible given his most recent remarks, and the Vikings identify a bona fide starting quarterback, be that an improved Jackson or someone other, the Vikings might have coaching and ability to add to the ability strewn throughout the rest of the squad. That, at least, would allow the team to compete for a championship--assuming they straighten out their deficiencies on pass defense and don't age too much in the process. But, to argue that perserverance will out without changes in the team's offensive philosophy is a recipe for continued failure.

Right now, it looks like smoke signals on the horizon.

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Return to the Greasy Grass

Native Americans referred to it as The Battle of the Greasy Grass. Others more commonly refer to it as The Battle of Little Big Horn or Custer's Last Stand. In either parlance, the battle between the U.S. Seventh Cavalary and the Lakota and Northern Cheyenne Indians readily came to mind during Minnesota Vikings' head coach Brad Childress' most recent press conference in the wake of the team's most recent loss.

When asked about his team's morale, Childress commented that the players are "professional" and that they would "be ready to play on Sunday." That insight aside, Childress offered more, noting that he reminded his players that working together through the rough stretches would make the team stronger in the future.

The question, of course, is what gives Childress reason to believe that the future is significantly brighter than the present? Following Sunday's loss to the previously 2-4 Philadelphia Eagles, the Vikings have lost 13 of their last 17 games. And, while Childress continues to preach patience, even Custer's men abadon such hope at some point.

The 800 pound gorilla for the Vikings remains whether Childress' system offers promise even for the future? It appears that, despite a finger injury that kept Tarvaris Jackson out last week, Childress is now willing to test the finger and put Jackson back at the helm of the offense, suggesting that Childress is resigned to not making the playoffs this season.

Assuming, however, that Jackson shows progress this season, is there much more reason for optimism in 2008 even with a better Jackson? Childress' comments suggest that he believes next year, or some year in the near future, will be a better year for the Vikings. But considering Childress' approach to the game, that seems doubtful at this point.

The recipe for returning the Vikings to success appears two-fold. First and foremost, the team needs better quarterbacking play. Brooks Bollinger appears to be the most equipped current Vikings' quarterback to meet that need. Instead, however, Jackson will be given a chance to learn the position and, presumably, audition for his return to the starter's role next season.

If Jackson succeeds, however, the Vikings still will have one large obstacle to returning to the status of championship contender. That obstacle is the mind-set of the head coach. It is improbable, if not impossible, to win an NFL championship with the approach that Childress currently is employing. Teams that play not to lose, keeping the game close in the hopes of snatching victory at the end, are, as precedent demonstrates and probability supports, destined, at best, for mediocrity.

If Childress changes his mindsight--something that sounds implausible given his most recent remarks, and the Vikings identify a bona fide starting quarterback, be that an improved Jackson or someone other, the Vikings might have coaching and ability to add to the ability strewn throughout the rest of the squad. That, at least, would allow the team to compete for a championship--assuming they straighten out their deficiencies on pass defense and don't age too much in the process. But, to argue that perserverance will out without changes in the team's offensive philosophy is a recipe for continued failure.

Up Next: Good and Bad Comparisons