As the NFL's 2007 college entry draft creaps ever closer, several questions remain regarding who will take whom, who will trade up, and who will trade down. With needs at several positions, the Minnesota Vikings remain one of the teams about whom little in this draft is certain. But with teams drafting ahead of Minnesota eyeing many of the same players that the Vikings covet, the Vikings' decision might be made for them before they deliver their first-round pick to Roger Goodell.
Waiting Game
In a previous post, I suggested a scenario by which the Vikings would find themselves in a position to draft Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson without trading up in the draft. That scenario requires every team ahead of Minnesota to draft for need and to understand their most pressing need. And that begins with Oakland taking JaMarcus Russell first overall in the draft after failing to trade for a quarterback capable of throwing the ball.
So far, Oakland has cooperated, failing in its bid to move wide receiver Randy Moss to Green Bay in exchange for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. If, on the clock on draft day, Oakland has yet to land a starting quarterback for 2007, JaMarcus Russell should be their selection.
Detroit doesn't have frightening wideouts, but it does have two very good receivers in Roy Williams and Mike Furrey. With holes on the offensive line and at defensive end, the Lions would be wise to draft either Clemson defensive end Gaines Adams or Wisconsin offensive tackle Joe Thomas. This is probably where things begin to fall apart for the Vikings' prospects of landing Johnson. Millen's infatuation with wide receivers, the prospect of joining Johnson with Williams and using Furrey as a third receiver, and hoping that the offensive line holds up will probably be too much of a temptation for Millen to pass on. While that migh be bad for Vikings' fans hoping to land a high-end wide receiver in this year's draft, it might be one of Millen's best draft picks.
If Detroit opts for Adams or Thomas over Johnson, however, there is every reason to believe that Tampa Bay will forego long-term security at the quarterback position in favor of immediately pairing Johnson with newly acquired Jeff Garcia and hoping that the offense can make a tremendous leap in one season. And that assumes that Cleveland already has passed on Johnson in favor of a defensive end or an offensive tackle--or a greater need. . .
Peterson Possibility
With everyone focused on Johnson, however, another offensive star is quietly hanging out in the top ten of most draft boards, bouncing between fourth and tenth in most mock drafts. Arguably the second most skilled player in this year's draft, Oklahoma running back Adrian Peterson finds himself in the unique position of being no better than the fourth most coveted player on the board in 2007.
Peterson's predicament is a manifestation of the needs of teams in the top ten falling somewhere other than running back and the logistics of a draft that might make passing on less talented players in the first round too daunting for teams needing players at those positions in the draft but unlikely to uncover anything nearly as good later in the draft. Specifically, Peterson's dilemma is a manifestation of the draft having two highly regarded quarterbacks, one very highly regarded wide receiver, and seven teams in the top seven coveting the three players. Throw in a Gaines Adams and Joe Thomas and Peterson becomes the potential draft-day victim of a logistical squeeze.
Peterson's bad fortune could be the Vikings' good fortune, however, assuming the Vikings take the best player on the board and don't trade down. The key for Minnesota having a shot at Peterson is what Detroit does with the number two pick in the draft. If Detroit takes Johnson, Cleveland likely will take Brady Quinn as a short-term understudy to Charlie Frye. If Detroit takes Quinn, however, Cleveland likely will address its long-standing running back short-coming taking Peterson at number three.
Assuming Cleveland passes on Peterson, the running back should fall at least to the number seven spot in the draft. Of the teams currently slated to select in the top six in this year's draft, only Cleveland has enough of a pressing need at running back to warrant drafting Peterson so high. If Cleveland passes on Peterson, so, too, are Tampa Bay, Arizona, and Washington likely to pass on him.
Cleveland passing on Peterson would open the door for the Vikings to take a back that is both big enough to be an every down back and skilled enough to upgrade a position which, though a secondary concern this year, is a position at which the Vikings most heavily depend for any success in Brad Childress' slow as you go offense.
What's to like about Peterson? Plenty. Despite two serious injuries during his college career, Peterson appears ready to play in the NFL and in no immediate danger of having recurring injuries. If healthy, Peterson is a horse. And the numbers make a good case for drafting him high.
In 2005, his junior and final season in college ball, USC running back Reggie Bush tallied 1740 yards on 200 carries with 16 TDs. Bush augmented his rushing totals, hauling in 37 receptions for 478 yards.
In 2004, Peterson earned Heisman consideration as a freshman by rushing for 1,925 yards on 339 carries with 15 touchdowns. And, despite a collarbone injury that forced him to sit out six games in 2006, Peterson rushed for 1,012 yards on 188 carries with 12 touchdowns. He also added 10 receptions for 136 yards.
Though Bush clearly has the better speed numbers, having racked up a very impressive 8.7 yards per carry and nearly 13 yards per reception in his junior year, he had the decided advantage over Peterson of being but one of many offensive weapons on a solid USC team playing in a conference in which defense was primarily an afterthought.
Against arguably better defensive competition and on a team less laden with offensive stars, Peterson more than acquitted himself, demonstrating that, though probably not the same kind of talent that Bush is, Peterson's talent is unmistakable and likely to translate at the NFL level.
If the Vikings opt for offense in the first round, they could do far worse than drafting Peterson with the number seven selection. Whether that's the best option for a team now contending that it is in re-building mode is the subject of the next column.
Up Next: Elements of Rebuilding. Plus, Jackson versus Quinn versus Waiting.
Friday, March 30, 2007
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Making Lurtsema's Eyes Water
It's becoming a broken record in the Minnesota Vikings' organization, as the team continues to take two steps sideways and another back. This week, after a miserable 2006 season and an off-season in which the Vikings not only filled none of their pressing needs but also lost at least two players who should have been starters in 2007, Vikings' owner Zygi Wilf pleaded with the Vikings' fan base for patience.
According to Zygi, the Vikings have a plan for returning to Super Bowl contention. Like the Mike Tice-Red McCombs plan of 2002, however, that plan envisions a return to contention somewhere down the road rather than in the immediate future. In other words, seven years after the Vikings' organization put into effect its three-year plan for returning to the Super Bowl, Zygi envisions the Vikings being in position to contend for a championship.
The culprit behind the Vikings' predicament, according to Zygi, is not the head coach who turned a poorly coached 9-7 team into a more talent-laden 6-10 team. Nor is the problem the ownership's failure to recognize it's own measurable short-comings in the realm of professional football management, exemplified by Zygi's decision not to hire a quality personnel manager, arguably through the present day.
No, the real problems that have beset the Vikings' organization are that the team plays in the Metrodome and was short on talent evaluators until recently. While both issues undoubtedly have played a role in how the Vikings have made organizational decisions during Zygi's tenure, only the latter does anything to explain the incompetence of the current regime.
Zygi's insinuation that the Metrodome has caused some of the Vikings' on-field woes--an insinuation that Zygi appeared to intend as subtle but one that he delivered as bluntly as possible--is based on the premise that, because the Vikings do not make as much money in the Metrodome as other teams make in their stadiums, the Vikings cannot compete in the NFL.
For the record, any claim that the Metrodome's revenue stream hamstrings the Vikings is ludicrous. Unlike MLB, where non-ticket stadium revenue streams are essential, the Vikings have no such concerns. Not only do the Vikings enjoy nearly $115 million in television revenue from the league, they also receive millions more in revenue sharing because of their situation in the Metrodome. On top of that money, the team receives money from NFL licensing ventures, team radio affiliations, ticket sales, concessions, suites, and advertising. Combined, the team has revenues near or in excess of $200 million per season. Even with a payroll of nearly $90 million in 2007, the Vikings' ownership group is likely to profit to the tune of $40 million this year.
Thus, while the argument that the Metrodome costs the Vikings' revenue stream opportunities is perfectly legitimate, the argument that the Vikings' on-field woes can be traced to decisions that had to be made out of financial considerations is utterly ridiculous.
What Zygi's angle is is not entirely clear. On the one hand, he's always appeared somewhat inept at the football bit. When he first came to town, he preached family and responsibility--a clear sign of trouble given that Zygi preferred these topics over football-related topics. We then discovered that responsibility was only required of the bubble players, not guys on whom the team was going to depend. That's fine in the world of the NFL where finding responsible players is the harder task. But it points out Zygi's either absolute naivete about the world of the NFL or Zygi's belief that Minnesota fans will eat whatever crap he ladles out.
Upon his arrival in town, Zygi also noted his high expectations for a team that he believed had the pieces in place to contend. Yet today, with few notable players gone from the team that Zygi inherited, and players like Steve Hutchinson, Cedric Griffin, Chad Greenway, Chester Taylor, Ben Leber, and Ryan Longwell, Zygi is pointing to a two to three year plan for returning the team to respectability. Either Zygi is providing cover for Childress' dismal results in 2006 against one of the weakest schedules in the NFL, or Zygi is blinded to the team's real issues.
Zygi is now contending that the Vikings plan to rebuild through the draft. While this is a laudable goal, it is also stating the obvious. As discussed on this site several times this off-season, the current NFL cap structure will make it difficult for teams to build through free-agency for the foreseeable future. With fewer free agents and more cap space, premium players will be re-signed or tagged and the few top-flight free agents who hit the market will command a king's ransom. These factors will conspire to force teams to look to the draft to fill holes for the next two or three years, at a minimum.
All of which begs a pertinent question. If the Vikings, over the next two to three years, are only going to do what every other team is already doing in the NFL, how will the Vikings overtake the twenty-five teams currently ahead of them? A quick look at the roster suggests that Zygi's two- to three-year plan might be more realistically stated as a ten- to twelve-year plan.
Of the players currently under contract, several either will be gone or long in the tooth, by NFL standards, in three years. Those players include center Matt Birk, safety Darren Sharper, cornerback Antoine Winfield, and defensive tackle Pat Williams. It's one thing to fill holes through the draft. It's another to fill holes currently filled by Pro-Bowl caliber players. And that makes Zygi's two- to three-year plan as suspect as any of his previous plans.
In his defense, Zygi is stuck. He's stuck with a coach who has not been able to deliver the kick ass offense that he promised. He's stuck with a team bereft of a starting quarterback. He's stuck with a team absent a number one receiver. He's stuck with a team left relying on a personnel manager that no other team in the NFL would touch. And, in short, he's stuck with the decisions that he made when he inherited the team, but now in an era where correcting those mistakes suddenly became a much taller task.
And he wants Vikings' fans to be patient for more of the same. Even Lurtsy's not buyin' this Purple pitch.
Up Next: Is Peterson the Best Option? Plus, does a three-year plan require trading down?
According to Zygi, the Vikings have a plan for returning to Super Bowl contention. Like the Mike Tice-Red McCombs plan of 2002, however, that plan envisions a return to contention somewhere down the road rather than in the immediate future. In other words, seven years after the Vikings' organization put into effect its three-year plan for returning to the Super Bowl, Zygi envisions the Vikings being in position to contend for a championship.
The culprit behind the Vikings' predicament, according to Zygi, is not the head coach who turned a poorly coached 9-7 team into a more talent-laden 6-10 team. Nor is the problem the ownership's failure to recognize it's own measurable short-comings in the realm of professional football management, exemplified by Zygi's decision not to hire a quality personnel manager, arguably through the present day.
No, the real problems that have beset the Vikings' organization are that the team plays in the Metrodome and was short on talent evaluators until recently. While both issues undoubtedly have played a role in how the Vikings have made organizational decisions during Zygi's tenure, only the latter does anything to explain the incompetence of the current regime.
Zygi's insinuation that the Metrodome has caused some of the Vikings' on-field woes--an insinuation that Zygi appeared to intend as subtle but one that he delivered as bluntly as possible--is based on the premise that, because the Vikings do not make as much money in the Metrodome as other teams make in their stadiums, the Vikings cannot compete in the NFL.
For the record, any claim that the Metrodome's revenue stream hamstrings the Vikings is ludicrous. Unlike MLB, where non-ticket stadium revenue streams are essential, the Vikings have no such concerns. Not only do the Vikings enjoy nearly $115 million in television revenue from the league, they also receive millions more in revenue sharing because of their situation in the Metrodome. On top of that money, the team receives money from NFL licensing ventures, team radio affiliations, ticket sales, concessions, suites, and advertising. Combined, the team has revenues near or in excess of $200 million per season. Even with a payroll of nearly $90 million in 2007, the Vikings' ownership group is likely to profit to the tune of $40 million this year.
Thus, while the argument that the Metrodome costs the Vikings' revenue stream opportunities is perfectly legitimate, the argument that the Vikings' on-field woes can be traced to decisions that had to be made out of financial considerations is utterly ridiculous.
What Zygi's angle is is not entirely clear. On the one hand, he's always appeared somewhat inept at the football bit. When he first came to town, he preached family and responsibility--a clear sign of trouble given that Zygi preferred these topics over football-related topics. We then discovered that responsibility was only required of the bubble players, not guys on whom the team was going to depend. That's fine in the world of the NFL where finding responsible players is the harder task. But it points out Zygi's either absolute naivete about the world of the NFL or Zygi's belief that Minnesota fans will eat whatever crap he ladles out.
Upon his arrival in town, Zygi also noted his high expectations for a team that he believed had the pieces in place to contend. Yet today, with few notable players gone from the team that Zygi inherited, and players like Steve Hutchinson, Cedric Griffin, Chad Greenway, Chester Taylor, Ben Leber, and Ryan Longwell, Zygi is pointing to a two to three year plan for returning the team to respectability. Either Zygi is providing cover for Childress' dismal results in 2006 against one of the weakest schedules in the NFL, or Zygi is blinded to the team's real issues.
Zygi is now contending that the Vikings plan to rebuild through the draft. While this is a laudable goal, it is also stating the obvious. As discussed on this site several times this off-season, the current NFL cap structure will make it difficult for teams to build through free-agency for the foreseeable future. With fewer free agents and more cap space, premium players will be re-signed or tagged and the few top-flight free agents who hit the market will command a king's ransom. These factors will conspire to force teams to look to the draft to fill holes for the next two or three years, at a minimum.
All of which begs a pertinent question. If the Vikings, over the next two to three years, are only going to do what every other team is already doing in the NFL, how will the Vikings overtake the twenty-five teams currently ahead of them? A quick look at the roster suggests that Zygi's two- to three-year plan might be more realistically stated as a ten- to twelve-year plan.
Of the players currently under contract, several either will be gone or long in the tooth, by NFL standards, in three years. Those players include center Matt Birk, safety Darren Sharper, cornerback Antoine Winfield, and defensive tackle Pat Williams. It's one thing to fill holes through the draft. It's another to fill holes currently filled by Pro-Bowl caliber players. And that makes Zygi's two- to three-year plan as suspect as any of his previous plans.
In his defense, Zygi is stuck. He's stuck with a coach who has not been able to deliver the kick ass offense that he promised. He's stuck with a team bereft of a starting quarterback. He's stuck with a team absent a number one receiver. He's stuck with a team left relying on a personnel manager that no other team in the NFL would touch. And, in short, he's stuck with the decisions that he made when he inherited the team, but now in an era where correcting those mistakes suddenly became a much taller task.
And he wants Vikings' fans to be patient for more of the same. Even Lurtsy's not buyin' this Purple pitch.
Up Next: Is Peterson the Best Option? Plus, does a three-year plan require trading down?
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